[SMM analysis] stainless steel futures prices have recovered after a sharp fall and are expected to remain weak in the short term.

SMM2, March 7: after Monday's sharp fall, stainless steel futures prices recovered. As of Friday, February 7, the main stainless steel contract SS2006 closed at 13270 yuan / ton, down nearly 0.1%, up 2.7% from Monday's lowest point of 12920 yuan / ton.

Spot transactions, Wuxi stainless steel spot market is still in a holiday state, due to local isolation restrictions have not started, and some agents and traders to postpone the resumption of construction time, there is no latest quotation in the market. Today's quotation holds the stable price before the festival, the state-owned 304 2B trimming volume price is quoted at 14800-15100 yuan / ton, and the private 304 2B rough edge roll price is 14050-14250 yuan / ton. 304 / NO. 1 five feet at 13200-13300 yuan per ton. For 10:30 SHFE SS2006 contract selling price 13260 yuan / ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot water 960-1160 yuan / ton. (

Up to now, there is no latest quotation for the types of steel products in Foshan area in the morning. At present, the overall quotation still maintains the price consolidation before the festival, in which the state-owned 304 2B trimming roll price is stable at 15050-15250 yuan / ton, and the private 3042B rough edge roll is temporarily flat at 13800-14100 yuan / ton. 304 / NO. 1 five feet in 13300-13500 yuan / ton. Today, most traders in Foshan said that they had confirmed that they would continue to postpone the reopening plan after February 17. Under the stage of strict control of the epidemic, the quotation of stainless steel departments was mainly based on the stability of steel prices before the festival. The delivery date of signed orders may be delayed by about a week depending on the logistics situation to decide whether or not to deliver the goods. For 10:30 SHFE SS2006 contract selling price 13260 yuan / ton, Foshan stainless steel spot water 710-1010 tons.

In terms of data, according to the SMM survey, the national stainless steel output in January 2020 was 2.0891 million tons, down 13.06% from the previous month, an increase of 4.80% over the same period last year. Due to the impact of the epidemic, enterprises across the country have delayed the start of construction, strict control, stainless steel plants and enterprises downstream of the industry chain production have been affected, and some areas are still delayed to resume construction time, therefore, stainless steel production in February is still slightly lower than in January. In February 2020, the initial output of stainless steel in China was 2.0137 million tons, a decrease of 3.61% over the previous month and an increase of 2.64% over the same period last year. Among them, the output of 200series 596800 tons is 5.87% less than that of the previous month, the output of 300series stainless steel is 1.0103 million tons, 0.31% less than that of the previous month, and the output of 400series is 441700 tons, 7.95% less than that of the previous month.

Today, the main stainless steel contract SS2006 morning opened at 13260 yuan / ton. Before noon, the upper pressure 13260 yuan / ton first line, the center of gravity around 13235 yuan / ton first line interval vibration, amplitude 50 yuan / ton near. In the afternoon, the bulls increased a large number of positions, SS rose sharply, but failed to break through the 13300 yuan / ton barrier, then the center of gravity around 13285 yuan / ton narrow volatility, the end of the day closed at 13265 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton from the previous trading day settlement price, down 0.08%. 12890 hands were traded throughout the day, an increase of 9239 hands, a position of 36993 hands and an increase of 5648 hands. Stainless steel 2006 contract closed in the small positive column, mainly to increase the warehouse, the K column as a whole runs in the Boll line under the rail position. In addition to closing in the Greater Shadow column on Monday, the overall center of gravity of SS this week showed a stepped upward trend, dominated by long positions, and SMM is expected to maintain a weak upward exploration pattern in the short term, with follow-up attention to the recovery of trading power between long and short sides and the demand for stainless steel terminals.

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